The Electoral State of Senator Kelly Ayotte
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Previous Election:
- 2010 Senate Race
- Race was Senator Ayotte's first attempt at a public office
- Carried New Hampshire with 60% of the vote to keep retiring Senator Judd Gregg's seat Republican
- Defeated Democrat Congressmen Paul Hodes by 106,165 votes
Upcoming 2016 Election:
- Primary
- No one has entered the race yet
- Expecting a Tea Party candidate as she has distanced herself from that group despite endorsements from Sarah Palin
- New Hampshire Tea Party Activist Jack Kimball said to Roll Call, "There is no question in my mind that she will garner a primary challenger".
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| (On campaign trail with Sarah Palin) |
- General
- All indications are pointing towards current Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan to run for the Democratic Nomination
- Early polling has led many to believe it will be a competitive race
- General Election Conditions:
- Obama carried New Hampshire in 2012 with 52% of the vote
- I think this is noteworthy as Obama was a vulnerable candidate in 2012, and in 2016, the democrats won't be having to run on his policies giving them a better shot at beating a Republican.
- Race will be competitive with potential candidate Maggie Hassan
- Hassan popular as Governor of NH
- Recent University of New Hampshire poll had Gov. Hassan with a 55% favorable approval rating
- After reviewing all of those conditions, I would say the seat would have to be at this time classified as a toss-up.
Campaign Finance:
- Open Secrets shows Senator Ayotte with a little over $2 million cash on hand
- Her top contributors have some association with finance whether it be investment groups or insurance companies
- No surprise here since she sits on the Budget Committee
- Spent $3.5 million in her 2010 Senate Race vs. Hodes
Major Issues:
- If a she has an opponent in the primary, much of the debate will shape around her moderate/slightly left positions on some issues
- League of Conservative Voters gave Ayotte a 26% ranking on environmental issues
- Split with Republicans on 10 amendments dealing with the environment on the Keystone Pipeline debate
- Ayotte will focus on the issues she is most comfortable with
- Opposing Obamacare (She will be able to use this in more effectively by saying if a Republican President is elected and she remains in office, they can remove and replace it)
- Even though this is not a midterm election, Republican Senators like Ayotte will still run a campaign against Obama and his policies as they did in 2014.
- Democrat Candidate:
- Will try to tie Ayotte with the Republican establishment
- Claim she is a flip-flopper especially with environment issues
My Prediction:
- I believe Ayotte has a strong base with good funds which will ultimately set her up for victory in 2016. She is becoming more moderate to appeal to more of the liberal base in New Hampshire. Senator Ayotte has made herself very popular within the Republican Party. With the support of the Republican establishment she has a huge advantage when it comes to her opponent. The Republican establishment in 2014 backed Thad Cochran to win a tough race vs. a Tea Party candidate, and I have no doubt they will not do everything in their power to help Senator Ayotte win reelection in 2016.
Other Sources:
- http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/01/AR2010110105177.html
- https://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/summary.php?cid=N00030980
